What is data rains?

Data Rains is an AI-powered forecasting system that analyzes 500+ S&P 500 stocks to predict directional movement over the next 10 trading days (~2 weeks). Think of it like a weather forecast—but for individual stock performance.

HOW DOES THE FORECAST WORK?

Each day, our system ingests market data, news sentiment, macro indicators, and 330+ technical features to generate forecasts using 1,500+ specialized machine learning models. The architecture includes:

• 1,518 base models: Three gradient boosting algorithms (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost) trained individually for each of 506 stocks

• Meta-learner: Intelligently blends all predictions using adaptive weighting based on recent model accuracy, confidence, and inter-model agreement

• 10-day horizon: Predictions target price movement 10 trading days forward (not next-day)

The ensemble achieves 60.6% AUC overall, with high-confidence predictions reaching 70.9% accuracy.

What does the Percent next to each asset mean?

This is the forecasted probability that the stock will increase in price over the next 10 trading days (~2 weeks).

• Above 50% = expected increase

• Below 50% = expected decrease

• Higher numbers = more confident bullish forecast

• Top 10% by confidence achieve ~70% accuracy

what is AUC? Why does it matter?

AUC (Area Under the Curve) measures the model's ability to separate winners from losers.

• 0.50 = no skill (random coin flip)

• 0.60 = meaningful signal

• 0.65+ = strong predictive power

• Our system: 60.6% AUC, with high-confidence picks at 70.9%

This performance is calculated across 10+ years of backtested data and represents accuracy after accounting for transaction costs.

what data powers the model?

Our forecast engine processes 330+ features daily across multiple data sources:

• Market data: Price, volume, technical indicators across multiple timeframes

• News sentiment: Daily headline analysis using OpenAI GPT models

• Macro indicators: Treasury yields, futures prices (ES, TY, CL), FOMC events, jobs reports

• Options data: Put/call ratios, implied volatility

• Cross-sectional features: Relative strength rankings across all stocks

All data is processed through a proprietary pipeline, feature-engineered, and fed to 1,500+ models that are retrained regularly on 10 years of historical data.

What does the DopplerXGB 4000 actually do?

Our system uses a two-tier architecture:

1. Base layer: 1,518 specialized machine-learning models (3 algorithms × 506 stocks) each learn individual stock behavior patterns

2. Meta-layer: A blending model combines predictions using adaptive weights based on:

   • Recent model accuracy per algorithm

   • Prediction confidence levels

   • Inter-model agreement/disagreement

   • Error momentum (improving vs. degrading models)

This creates a dynamic ensemble that automatically shifts weight toward models performing well and away from those showing recent errors.

When is the forecast updated?

Forecasts are updated Monday–Friday after market close (typically 4:30–5:30 PM EST) and published the same evening. The system:

1. Fetches latest market data through market close

2. Analyzes news headlines and sentiment

3. Generates fresh 10-day predictions for 500+ stocks

4. Exports ranked predictions by confidence

Can i download the forecast?

Yes. Subscribers to the Full Market Access plan can download a CSV with the full daily signal set across 500+ assets since the historical start of tracking by Data Rains.

Each row includes:

• Run Date

• Predicted Date

• Ticker

• Predicted direction (% confidence)

• AUC score (accuracy of model for each ticker)

• Model class outputs (1=up, 0=down)

Is this financial advice?

No. Data Rains provides probabilistic forecasts for informational and educational purposes only. Predictions are model outputs based on historical patterns and do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.